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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#19: 27 AUGUST 2019
Afghan Drug Trail & the Indian Drug Syndicates
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
Recurrent arrests of Indian drug smugglers and Afghan nationals have brought renewed focus on the increase in smuggling of heroin from Afghanistan into India. The nefarious trade has not only grown in sophistication, but could be paving way for direct linkages between India’s own drug lords and compatriots in Afghanistan. Orders placed from India are getting delivered through a variety of means using sea, air, and land routes that crisscross different continents. Efforts of Indian law enforcement agencies need to be innovative and more importantly, supplemented by a regional cooperative mechanism to control this illegal trade.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#18: 01 AUGUST 2019
The Afghanistan-India Drug Trail
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
Proximity to the Golden Crescent, steady rise in domestic demand, and the thriving illicit networks’ ability to exploit the ungoverned spaces and porous borders are among the factors that are making India a new destination of drugs from Afghanistan. The contraband is entering India both through land as well as the maritime route. In this ‘nexus’ that has led to the growth of the drug trade, organized criminal networks, smugglers, local policemen, and politicians are tied in a symbiotic relationship. The situation may have improved marginally, according to the claims of the Indian authorities. However, to curb the growing trade and to break the ‘unholy nexus’ that sustains it, a regional counter-narcotics strategy combined with beefing up domestic laws and law enforcement capacities would be necessary.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#17: 07 JUNE 2019
Emerging Human Trafficking Networks of Rohingya: A Symbiotic Nexus
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Over a million Rohingya refugees live in camps located over 6000 acres in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazaar area. Most of these refugees face a bleak future and have given up hope of ever returning to their homes in Myanmar. Organised trafficking syndicates, worth millions of dollars, have sprung up with networks in Myanmar, Thailand, India, and Malaysia. With the promise of jobs and a better future, these refugees are being trafficked to Malaysia for a hefty amount. Only a section of these refugees, however, reach their final destination. Many others drown to death at sea, are killed, tortured and raped by the traffickers, who have anintimate profit-sharing nexus with the authorities in many of these countries.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#16: 11 APRIL 2019
Patron-Client Relationship: Pakistani Deep State and the Jaish-e-Mohammad
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
In the complex jihadi landscape of South Asia, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) , since its origin in 2000, has served as an instrument of Pakistani military’s policy vis-à-vis India and Afghanistan. The deep state within Pakistan nurtured it in the initial years and used it as an instrument of foreign policy against the neighbouring countries. Barring few years when President Musharraf tried to curb JeM’s activities, such incessant logistical support contributed to the group’s rising profile. Buried in the debate, however, are two important trends that continue to receive less attention. Firstly, the JeM continues to share a symbiotic relationship with the Taliban and al Qaeda; and secondly, Pakistan military continues to adopt a dual strategy of switching between the JeM and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), to deflect international criticism. A policy to neutralise these groups in Pakistan must factor in ways and means to break this patron-client relationship.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#15: 22 OCTOBER 2018
Islamic State Impact: Terrorism and Counter-terrorism in Malaysia
Tanvi Gupta
Abstract
The Islamic State has not only drawn Malaysians to Syria as foreign fighters, but has converted some of them into effective recruitment tools to ferment trouble back home. A lone terror attack, number of terror plots, and a visible increase in radicalization are among the manifestations of the phenomenon that poses enormous complexities to Malaysian state. The new government in Malaysia under Mahathir Mohamad has introduced a range of changes to pursue a softer counter terrorism approach. These changes, however, need to be augmented by regional cooperation and focus on counter-messaging.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#14: 27 SEPTEMBER 2018
Islamic State in Kashmir: Black Fags and Black Shrouds
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
As the Islamic State seeks to regain its diminishing clout to expand into new theatres, it appears to be making a desperate attempt to gain foothold in Kashmir, where internal dissent and an externally sponsored proxy war has been the reason for significant violence. Till now, compared to the local as well as foreign militants belonging to various terrorist outfits, followers of the Islamic State are minuscule, limited to less than a dozen militants. However, a slow trickle of young men and growing popular support keeps the outfit’s expansion plan alive. That must be a cause of concern for the government.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#13: 16 AUGUST 2018
No End in Sight: Islamist Militancy in the Philippines since the Marawi Siege
Tanvi Gupta & Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Since the end of the siege over Marawi, the Armed Forces of Philippines have tried to neutralise the remnants of Islamic State-affiliated militancy. Success has been achieved. Yet, the dispersed militancy has not only managed to carry out odd attacks, but is demonstrating definite signs of revival. Not surprisingly, the hard line approach of President Duterte is being replaced by frequent calls for peace. Bringing militancy to an end will not be an easy task, and would depend a great deal on how the recent deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front pans out.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#12: 30 JULY 2018
Women Cadres of the CPI-Maoist
Rhea Maheshwari
Abstract
While official assessments point at the forced recruitment of women by the extremists and their exploitation within the organization, the left-wing extremists of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) underline the important role played by women in their operations and the organization’s growth. Amidst such contesting narratives, this report, containing profiles of 22 women cadres, is an attempt to contribute to the scant literature on the subject.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#11: 28 JUNE 2017
Islamic State in Central Asia
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The Islamic State (IS) has been able to attract into its fold a substantial number of people from the Central Asian States (CAS). A number of IS-inspired attacks by nationals from the CAS continue to take place in various countries in the region as well as outside. Impetus for this dynamic is not to be found in radicalization alone, rather in escapism from poor economic conditions and repression by authoritarian regimes. State responses to the phenomenon, however, have remained off the mark. Though necessary, it is clear that more is needed than repressive measures and greater funds allocation that masquerade as stringent measures. It also seems unlikely that the defeat of IS in Iraq and Syria will mean the death of extremism in the CAS region.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#10: 22 MAY 2017
Intelligence and Counter-intelligence in India’s Maoist theatres
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
A single big extremist attack can reverse the narrative of optimism regarding India winning the war on left-wing extremism (LWE). Such an attack can lead to a barrage of charges and counter charges on the range of deficiencies that affects New Delhi’s counter-LWE policy. The 24 April attack in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district is a case in point. The neatly planned attack that resulted in the death of 25 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel just not turned the previous official claim of a near-victory over LWE on its head, but opened a can of worms revealing the deficiencies that continue to mar the war on extremism in the past few years. This article takes stock of one such shortcomings, i.e. the lack of ground level intelligence.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#09: 12 APRIL 2017
Bangladesh’s Unique War on the Islamic State
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Bangladesh has launched a unique war on home grown militants with clear ideological linkages with the Islamic State, even while dismissing speculations regarding the IS presence in the country. Raids on militant dens, killings and arrests of militants have followed bigger and smaller terror attacks on Bangladeshi soil. Much of these terror neutralisation strategy, however, has remained mired in controversy and laced with allegations that the Awami League government could be attempting to protect its own interests while killing terrorists. This strategy of eliminating terrorism by eliminating terrorists may not be entirely effective, as Dhaka’spast endeavours demonstrate.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#08: 28 FEBRUARY 2017
Inspire, Enlist, and Execute: The Islamic State’s Strategy in Southeast Asia
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Close to 800 persons from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines are among the foreign fighter network of the Islamic State (IS). The estimate is far larger than the number of Southeast Asians who had travelled to Afghanistan to be a part of the anti-Soviet Jihad. Some of these IS cadres are now in charge of the propaganda machinery that not only asks more people from the region to join the outfit, but exhorts those who cannot, to carry out attacks at home. Year 2016 saw a number of IS inspires terror attacks in Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. With the authorities still in the process of giving shape to their respective national approaches to deal with the resurgence of Islamist radicalism, the IS seems to be making some significant gains within the region using a supportive ecosystem.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#07: 10 OCTOBER 2016
Why Kazakhstan learns from Singapore
Boh Ze Kai
Abstract
Kazakhstan’s adoption of the Singaporean governance and economic model is a fascinating subject worth exploration. Focusing on the Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund, the civil service structure, and healthcare services in Kazakhstan, this article delves into examining how the Kazakh government has attempted to reform its economy and bureaucracy to build a highly functional state.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#06: 03 OCTOBER 2016
India: Lessons from ‘surgical strikes’ in Myanmar
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
It is not a commentary on the ability of the Indian army to carry out surgical strikes. Such strikes do not come with an element of success woven into them. And yet before the first shots are fired politics takes over. Chest thumping machismo is forced to beat a hasty retreat when facts emerge. The 2015 and 2016 surgical strikes in Myanmar to avenge the death of 18 Army personnel in Manipur in June 2015 impart few lessons.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#05: 08 APRIL 2016
One Belt, One Road, One Singapore
Boh Ze Kai
Abstract
In the 14th century, Mongol dominance in Asia resulted in the Pax Mongolica, a framework of peaceful trading relationships straddling the Maritime and Overland Silk Roads, allowing the Kingdom of Singapura to flourish into a wealthy entrepot trading port. Today, the two roads are severed, and trade between Central Asia and Singapore is tiny, much more so for non-oil merchandise. The low volume of trade is evident considering Central Asia’s landlocked position presents a significant barrier of trade to the maritime trading hub that is Singapore. Today, China’s One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative promises to direct international attention to regional infrastructure development, effectively resurrecting a new Pax Sinica. This new economic paradigm could well create exciting new opportunities for Singaporean trade and investment in an untapped region. This report will focus on Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and the ways Singapore can capitalise on its unique expertise in the OBOR initiative.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#04: 11 MARCH 2016
Expanding Chinese Infrastructure on the Indian border
Jhinuk Chowdhury
Abstract
Three key focus areas of China’s massive infrastructure build up along the Sino-Indian border are: integrating the border region to Chinese mainland, accessibility to the Line of Control, and strengthening counter offensive capabilities. This calls for an urgent attention from New Delhi as a reactionary policy would not suffice.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#03: 27 JANUARY 2016
Narco Diplomacy: Foreign Policy of the United Wa State Army
Boh Ze Kai
Abstract
Once a remote, uncontrollable region, Shan State in North Myanmar is home to the ‘Wild’ Wa people, who make up 10percent of its population. Nonetheless, with 30,000 active soldiers, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), is prima inter pares in the narcotics production zone of the Golden Triangle and one of the largest rebel armies in the world. Part of the UWSA’s success can be attributed to their skilful diplomacy with state and regional actors, capitalising on connections gained from their time in the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) to build vital trade and military alliances. In light of political change in the 2015 Myanmar Elections, this article aims to explore ‘foreign’ policy options for the UWSA with the Myanmar Government, the Chinese Government, narcotics groups in Thailand and rebel groups in the Shan State.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#02: 16 JULY 2015
Islamic State’s Indian Brigade
Surya Valliappan Krishna & Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Over the past year, number of Indians and people of Indian origin have been associated with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Mantraya.org profiles these individuals who have shared different categories of alliances with the Islamic State as fighters, propagandists, fan-boys, wannabe extremists and even people willing to live and perish in the established Caliphate. There is no agreement on the actual number of Indians or people of Indian origin associated with the Islamic State. This database by Mantraya.org, the only one of its kind till date, focuses on the confirmed participants.
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MANTRAYA SPECIAL REPORT#01: 13 JULY 2015
Made in Myanmar: Small Arms for North-eastern Insurgents
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
In addition to the Chinese-manufactured small arms that land up regularly in the hands of the insurgents operating in India’s northeast, Myanmar is emerging of late as a significant source of such weapons. At the heart of the journey of these tools of terror from a gun factory in Kachin state to Taga, the biggest insurgent camp in the Sagaing division, is a deep rooted political and criminal nexus in Myanmar, which needs to be targeted for the insurgency in the northeast to be weakened.
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