OCCASIONAL PAPERS

In Nepal, recent political debate has focused intensely upon acceptance of U.S. aid. On 20 June 2022, the Nepali Cabinet appeared to bow to demands that it repel the ostensible American military invasion represented by the State Partnership Programme (SPP), a post-Cold War initiative designed to bring the civilian expertise of the various National Guard programmes in the U.S. states and territories to assist as requested partner democracies. The victory was touted by the left as representing something of a counter-blow against the demise of national sovereignty embodied in the controversial acceptance, just months earlier, of the American half-billion dollar Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant for road construction and hydropower construction in the country. Though grounded more in ideological and personal positioning than reality, the episode provides useful insight into the state of Nepali politics in 2022. Though seldom (if ever) noted explicitly in commentary, it is self-proclaimed Marxist-Leninists who are in charge.  

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) welcomed India and Pakistan into its cohort in 2017, a move that not only revamped the organization, but made it relevant in the South Asian context. This unveils the scenario of friendly relations between India and Russia on the one hand, and Pakistan and China on the other, playing out diplomatically on the SCO stage. However, can the SCO ever become a platform for rapprochement between India and Pakistan? Or will both countries use it as another forum to display their acrimony? The article analyses the myriad permutations and combinations that have been put into motion in the SCO, because of its expansion to include India and Pakistan and what this means to South Asia?

Different militant streams operating in Pakistan are characterized respectively by conventional jihadist groups – established to safeguard the state’s strategic interests in the region; independent militant groups – formed by the militants who grew in the folds of or parallel to conventional groups but gradually formed their separate groups such as tribal Taliban militant groups; violent sectarian groups and new militant groups/cells as well a self-radicalized individuals; and foreign militant groups such as Al-Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic State. Although all these four groups or categories have diverse primary, or priority agendas – ranging from liberating Kashmir to targeting Shias and establishing national and global Islamic state or caliphate – but almost all share similar secondary agendas which include cooperating with global militant groups. The conventional groups have developed expansive physical infrastructure and assets which some see as their weakness that does not allow them to go against state. Meanwhile, collaborations and nexus among groups play an important role in determining the operational strength of a group. Without breaking this operational nexus, preventing major guerrilla-style terrorist operations would be an uphill task. The reintegration prospects, though, can be explored within the conventional militant groups, who appear willing to be part of political mainstreaming.

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For over twenty years, the Central Asian states have faced periodic challenges of violent extremist groups and radical ideologies. These have varied among the countries, in terms of intensity, motivation, and methods, requiring the states to adjust their counter-measures accordingly. To an extent, the national narratives are similar, in that extremism is deemed an existential threat that needs to be managed with the harshest measures. However, in time, parallel approaches of de-radicalization, counter-messaging, and the like have been employed, suggesting a better appreciation of the root causes of violent extremism. That said, punitive measures remain important and with the concern of “returning foreign fighters,” one can expect an increase in them. This contribution will examine the various strands of extremism in Central Asia and compare and contrast the respective government approaches to them. Not surprisingly, the capacity and motivation to carry our measures against such groups vary. Sometimes outside assistance is required. Likewise, multinational security organizations appear to offer some ability to frame the issues in the region. For all, it is a matter of how important the threat really is, or is perceived to be, that determines the severity of counter measures and actions.

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MANTRAYA OCCASIONAL PAPER #04: 14 JUNE 2017

Nearly sixteen years since 9-11, the quest to explain individual motivation for participation in “terrorism” has produced a body of gendered work of increasing sophistication. As illustrated by the case of female combatant participation in Nepal’s Maoist people’s war, however, conflation of irregular terminology confuses the issue as to the object of participation, thus the reasons for joining, staying, or leaving.  For Nepali women, agency took the form of perceived self-defense enabled by structural deficiencies in Nepal’s democratic polity. Nonetheless, the organizational expression of solution, people’s war, was itself flawed, leading to a mixed legacy of revolutionary impulse.

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As insurgency continues in the Thai Southern Border Provinces (SBP), external commentary, overwhelmingly in academia, remains the primary source of suggestions for how Bangkok should proceed.  Discussion falls into three major threads, ranging from designating a special status (e.g., autonomy) to improving the efficiency of the “counterterrorism” effort, with the most relevant treatment distinguished by its specific knowledge of the insurgents themselves within the larger SBP context.  Though Thai short-term approaches have been adequate, they throw open the long-term possibility of internationalization of the conflict through institutionalizing process at the expense of a search for a viable political solution.

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