MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#67: 04 JULY 2023 Myanmar’s Surging Narco-trade: Military and the Opiate Economy BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY Abstract Opium production in Afghanistan has significantly declined. But it has surged in Myanmar. The military, which is in power following the coup in February 2021, is neither willing nor capable of launching a war on opium cultivation and […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#66: 23 MAY 2023 The Question of Myanmarese Migrants in Manipur: Ethnic Violence, Drugs, & Conflict Spillover BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY Abstract Among the many factors behind the ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities in Manipur is the alleged presence of Myanmarese in the five hill districts of the state. Whereas the Kuki […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#65: 7 APRIL 2023 Dissolution of the National League for Democracy: What Next for the Prospect to restore democracy in Myanmar? BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY Introduction On 28 March 2023, Myanmar’s election commission announced the dissolution of 40 political parties including the National League for Democracy (NLD) for failing to re-register under a new military-drafted […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#64: 10 MARCH 2023 Taliban Incapacity and the growing threat of Islamic State-Khorasan Province SHANTHIE MARIET DSOUZA & BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT In the past two years, the Islamic State’s Khorasan Province in Afghanistan has increased its cadre strength from 3000 to 6000. Taking advantage of the ungoverned spaces and the Taliban’s inability to […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#63: 14 FEBRUARY 2023 Preparing for a Fraudulent Election: Myanmar Military attempts to Legitimize the Coup BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT Myanmar’s military junta is preparing for holding an election in 2023 in order to provide the much-needed legitimacy to its rule. It is most likely to be a sham exercise, the UN has speculated. […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#62: 05 JANUARY 2023 The TTP and the Pakistani State: How Not to Fight an Insurgency BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT After calling off its months-long ceasefire with the Pakistani state in November 2022, the TTP has launched an unprecedented wave of country-wide violence. The bulk of the violence, however, is concentrated in the settled […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#61: 26 OCTOBER 2022 Emerging Faultlines within the Taliban: Implications for Afghanistan & Pakistan SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA & BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT The continuing closure of girls’ schools in Afghanistan, in spite of the promises made by the Taliban, is one of the many issues which have brought deep factionalism among the former insurgents. […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#60: 11 OCTOBER 2022 State of Play: Lashkar-e-Taiba in Kashmir BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT Terrorist violence in Jammu & Kashmir is decreasing. And yet, terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) continue their attempt to reverse the gains made by the security forces. Backing from the state sponsors in Pakistan, geopolitical changes in Afghanistan and […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#59: 06 AUGUST 2022 Myanmar Military’s Annihilation Strategy: The Future of Democracy BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT Ongoing armed contestations between the military junta in Myanmar and the civilian armed groups demanding restoration of democracy are nearly a year and a half old. The military’s initial assessment of quelling the opposition swiftly has been proved […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#58: 05 MAY 2022 Baloch Insurgency: Pakistan’s Moment of Reckoning Bibhu Prasad Routray Abstract Baloch insurgency is on a resurgence and its widened targets include CPEC projects as well as Chinese nationals in Pakistan. The Pakistani security establishment is under pressure from Beijing to respond decisively to the killing of three Chinese nationals on […]