MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#62: 05 JANUARY 2023 The TTP and the Pakistani State: How Not to Fight an Insurgency BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT After calling off its months-long ceasefire with the Pakistani state in November 2022, the TTP has launched an unprecedented wave of country-wide violence. The bulk of the violence, however, is concentrated in the settled […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#45: 31 DECEMBER 2022 Limits of Pakistan’s Afghanistan Policy SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA ABSTRACT The Afghan Taliban are seemingly breaking free from their former sponsors. They have refused to accept the Durand Line as the international border with Pakistan and have failed to force the TTP to give up its violent attacks in Pakistan. […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#44: 28 DECEMBER 2022 Myanmar in 2022: Future of the Opposition’s Armed Uprising BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT The bloody war of the Myanmar military unleashed on the civilian PDFs and the ethnic armed organisations continues to claim lives daily. The opposition’s violent resistance,centred around restoring democracy, although impressive thus far, needs external support […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#43: 30 NOVEMBER 2022 The Rise of Islamic State’s Khorasan Province BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT The Islamic State’s Khorasan Province (ISKP) is on an ascent in Afghanistan. Its violent attacks targeting both the Taliban members and the civilians belonging to the minority communities have continued, despite ‘measures’ taken by the Islamic Emirate. Not […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#61: 26 OCTOBER 2022 Emerging Faultlines within the Taliban: Implications for Afghanistan & Pakistan SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA & BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT The continuing closure of girls’ schools in Afghanistan, in spite of the promises made by the Taliban, is one of the many issues which have brought deep factionalism among the former insurgents. […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#60: 11 OCTOBER 2022 State of Play: Lashkar-e-Taiba in Kashmir BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT Terrorist violence in Jammu & Kashmir is decreasing. And yet, terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) continue their attempt to reverse the gains made by the security forces. Backing from the state sponsors in Pakistan, geopolitical changes in Afghanistan and […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#42: 19 SEPTEMBER 2022 The Killing of Ayman al Zawahiri: Impact on al Qaeda-linked Terror Groups in Africa BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY & SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA ABSTRACT Following the killing of al Qaeda (AQ) chief Ayman al Zawahiri in Kabul on 2 August 2022, the possible impact of neutralizing a leader on the group […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#41: 23 AUGUST 2022 India’s Leap of Faith in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan SHANTHIE MARIET DSOUZA ABSTRACT Within a year of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, India’s policy towards the country has shifted from detachment to reluctant engagement. However, the June 2022 decision to reopen its embassy in Kabul has been fueled mostly by hope, […]
MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#59: 06 AUGUST 2022 Myanmar Military’s Annihilation Strategy: The Future of Democracy BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY ABSTRACT Ongoing armed contestations between the military junta in Myanmar and the civilian armed groups demanding restoration of democracy are nearly a year and a half old. The military’s initial assessment of quelling the opposition swiftly has been proved […]
MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#40: 03 AUGUST 2022 Need and Vision for a Mine and ERW-free Afghanistan SHANTHIE MARIET DSOUZA ABSTRACT Afghanistan remains most heavily contaminated by landmines as well as explosive remnants of war, the related casualties of which can be counted in their thousands. The country needs sustained international attention and clear benchmarks on demining. […]