MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#40: 03 AUGUST 2022
Need and Vision for a Mine and ERF-free Afghanistan
SHANTHIE MARIET DSOUZA
ABSTRACT
Afghanistan remains most heavily contaminated by landmines as well as explosive remnants of war, the related casualties of which can be counted in their thousands. The country needs sustained international attention and clear benchmarks on demining. After the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the dangers of mine action slipping off the radar is a possibility. This has to be addressed immediately in order to prevent the country from returning to endless cycles of violence and destruction.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#39: 09 JULY 2022
Navigating a Complex Terrain in Afghanistan: Ideological Obduracy of the Taliban 2.0
SHANTHIE MARIET DSOUZA
ABSTRACT
The Taliban 2.0 today remains strikingly similar to the regime it established in Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. Systemic violence against women, minorities and supporters of the deposed government continues to increase across the country.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#38: 08 APRIL 2022
Re-Reviving TAPI: Hardened Obstacles & Challenges for New Delhi
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The TAPI project is in the news, yet again. There have been fresh attempts at reviving the project by all involved parties. The long-stalled project also seems to have been boosted by a China-led initiative. However, to imagine the project being up and running because of these expressions of interest are difficult. Almost all the obstacles that have prevented the project from fruition remain. Worse still, few of them have actually hardened, posing almost an insurmountable challenge to the implementation of the project. Time, therefore, is to bring in fresh and innovative thinking.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#37: 18 SEPTEMBER 2021
Afghanistan: Future of Global Terrorism
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza & Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The expectation that the new Taliban caretaker government would deliver on its promises of preventing the Afghan soil for terrorist activities elsewhere is unrealistic. While al Qaeda and a host of global terror organisations would exploit the Taliban’s undisrupted tactical nexus with them, groups like the Islamic State would benefit from a vast expansion of ungoverned territory in the Af-Pak region. Global terror would find a boost, impacting the region and beyond in the medium to long term.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#36: 28 MARCH 2021
Left-Wing Extremism in India: Worrying Trends from Chhattisgarh
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
While extremist attacks claiming lives of security forces in left-wing extremism (LWE) affected states of India aren’t a new and unexpected phenomenon, each such attack underlines the potency of the extremists and provides a setback to the goal of bringing extremism to an end in the coming years. In spite of decades-long counter-LWE operations, vast stretches of multiple states remain under the control of the extremists. Unless operational lapses are addressed and unity of purpose among the central and State governments are established, ending LWE in India may remain a difficult goal to achieve.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#35: 16 DECEMBER 2020
Covid-19 Pandemic & Prevention of Violent Extremism
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has impeded the fight against violent extremism. Lack of resources has affected operations of extremist/terrorist organisations as well. However, to overcome the limitations, extremist/ terrorist organizations have expanded their presence in the cyber space. As South and Southeast Asia prepare for the post-pandemic period, extremist activism in the world wide web may pose a new danger in terms of expanded cadre base and novel techniques for perpetrating violence.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#34: 20 APRIL 2020
TRF and TMI: Lashkar-e-Toiba’s new tools in Kashmir
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
In Kashmir, since the abrogation of Article 370, two new militant outfits have emerged to lay claim to a number of violent incidents. Both the TRF and the TMI also claim to represent the local Kashmiris. But several links exist between the two and the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Nonetheless, unless checked, both could initiate the launch of a new phase of violence and instability in the valley.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#33: 01 APRIL 2020
Islamic State in India: Wilayat-e-Hind
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The Islamic State and its affiliates have been expanding their activities in Africa and Afghanistan. However, similar attempts to find a foothold in India have not been successful till now. Months after Indian government’s August 2019 decision to revoke the statehood of Jammu & Kashmir, the outfit is making a new bid to gain relevance among the aggrieved Kashmiris and other Indian Muslims. Although currently it lacks the basic wherewithal to be militarily potent, the attempt to blend local grievances and conflicts into its global ideology, may find some takers.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#32: 12 FEBRUARY 2020
Surging Jihadist Wave in Western Africa: Conflict Spillover
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza & Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The Sahel region in Western Africa is witnessing a massive surge in terrorist attacks. Three countries- Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso- reported 4000 deaths in 2019 and the trend of staggering casualties in attacks by al Qaeda and Islamic State-linked outfits continues in 2020. The governments and militaries of the affected states are ill prepared to deal with the upscale in violence. With the United States of America considering pulling out its troops, 5000 French troops may not be able to contain the Jihadist wave in general and the resurgence of the Islamic State in particular, which may engulf the entire Sahel region causing deaths and producing thousands of IDPs.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#31: 12 NOVEMBER 2019
Nagaland: Conflict Fragility, Intractability, and Resolution
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
More than four years after it signed the framework agreement with the NSCN-IM in 2015, New Delhi appears distant from signing a final peace deal in the restive state of Nagaland. Conducted under the close of watch of the Prime Minister’s Office, the inability to reach a final solution underlines a number of unique challenges: some historic and some which have roots in the government’s new-found template for ending conflicts.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#30: 31 OCTOBER 2019
Death of Baghdadi: Specter of Radicalization & Violent Extremism
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been hailed as a success in dealing a death blow to the Islamic state leadership and organization. Despite such claims of early success of counter terrorism (CT) operations, some fundamental questions remain unanswered. Will the setback of losing its top leader induce a phase of operational paralysis in the Islamic State (IS) or will it turn out to be only temporary, without much impact on the activity of the affiliates and individuals who kill in the name of the organization? What are the factors which will continue to aid the agencies of terror and radicalization? How will incidents of radicalization and violent extremism fan out, following the death of Baghdadi? And what impact will this episode have on India’s CT and counter-violent extremism efforts? This brief provides answers to these questions.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#29: 23 JULY 2019
Left-wing Extremism in India: Revisiting the ‘new’ Strategy
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in New Delhi, in its second term, is making renewed attempts to end left-wing extremism (LWE). The broad parameters of the new strategy consist of plans to target the extremists by deploying more forces in the affected states and also to pursue the over-ground sympathizers of the movement in urban areas. The strategy does not vary qualitatively much from the one pursued by the previous Home Ministry under Rajnath Singh and even his predecessor P Chidambaram. Unless the governance deficit is addressed and a comprehensive national strategy on LWE is initiated, mere force-centric methods cannot bring a permanent solution to the problem.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#28: 24 MAY 2019
Zakir Musa: Death of Kashmir’s loneliest Militant
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Contrary to media headlines, Zakir Musa was not the ‘most wanted militant’ in Kashmir valley. With an aim to set up a caliphate, Musa led an immensely forgettable militancy, which had no stakeholders. His death, however, is a blow to the attempt by global jihadists to find a base in Kashmir.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#27: 28 AUGUST 2018
Inside the neo-Jihad Mill: Islamist Mobilization in Bangladesh
Prabhnoor Kohli
Abstract
Growth of radical Islam and terrorism with ambivalent linkages to global jihadism is now a reality in Bangladesh. Terrorist groups have found it difficult to withstand sustained pressure from the security forces. The neo-Jihadists, however, seem to have found a new mantra to success. Keeping their actions low scale and using social media and ‘direct contact’ programmes to attract educated youngsters into their fold, radical Islam is exploiting the cleavages in the country presented by polarized politics. This article attempts to throw light on extremist mobilisation, their networks, and recruitment strategies.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#26: 08 MARCH 2018
India’s Maldives Policy: Is it a ‘Grenada moment’?
Sanjay Kapoor
Abstract
Maldives, which is famous for its high-end Indian Ocean resorts, has become a scene of strategic contestation between India and China. This situation has been leavened by Maldivian President Yameen Abdul Gayoom, who is trying to extricate his country from India’s arc of influence by building close a relationship with China. The latter has expanded ties with the countries of the region as part of its connectivity project, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yameen has imposed a state of national Emergency after Maldivian Supreme Court asked the government to release all political prisoners. There are expectations from India to reclaim its lost influence- can it do it?
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#25: 23 FEBRUARY 2018
Stock-taking China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Sayantan Haldar
Abstract
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a flagship project under China’s emergent Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Hailed as one of the most investment heavy projects that China is undertaking as a part of its BRI, CPEC has received immense attention from all over the world. CPEC provides strategic leverage to China as Beijing sees it as an alternative to overcome the Malacca Dilemma. It also promises to be a potential game changer for Pakistan’s ailing economy and provide for a better connectivity network between China and Central Asia. How much of it is true?
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#24: 01 DECEMBER 2017
Islamic State’s Foreign Fighters: India’s Achilles heel?
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
It is the season for home coming. With the Caliphate of the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and Syria, the surviving among the outfit’s 40,000 foreign fighters are now faced with three options-to die fighting, to move into new conflict theatres in an attempt to relive the dream of a Caliphate, or to return to their home countries. It is the third option which is now making many countries nervous. How to manage such returns and what to do with these fighters once they return? What impact can they have on conflict theatres such as Kashmir?
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#23: 25 OCTOBER 2017
Siege of Marawi: Spectre of ‘new’ terrorism in Southeast Asia
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The near five month siege of Marawi in Philippines by the militants inspired by the Islamic State ended on 23 October 2017. Notwithstanding the official claims of the military having nipped the bud of extremism, the episode could mark the beginning a new wave of terrorism in Southeast Asia.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#22: 31 AUGUST 2017
Countering Violent Extremism in Myanmar
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Two attacks on the security forces within a span of 10 months by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has led to a massive operation by the Myanmar armed forces in the Rakhine State. Over 100 ARSA cadres and civilians have been killed and thousands of Rohingyas have been displaced. While such high-handed counter-extremism approach may weaken the ARSA for the time being, the socio-political context within which such extremism has risen, will keep it alive.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#21: 15 AUGUST 2017
The ‘al Qaeda’ stream of Kashmir Militancy
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
A segment within the Kashmir militancy has turned global. Declaring itself a branch of the al Qaeda, this small team of militants are not just posing new challenges to the Indian security establishment, but also to the Pakistan sponsored movement which aims at merger with Pakistan as Kashmir’s end objective.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#20: 01 JUNE 2017
Regional power play in Afghanistan and India’s policy options
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
A regional power realignment is taking place in Afghanistan. As countries jockey for influence in shaping the end-game in Afghanistan, India seems to be a lone bystander being sidelined even by its traditional allies- Russia and Iran. A new great power rivalry between the U.S. and Russia is evident not just in Syria and other places, but also in Afghanistan. As there are attempts at regional block formation, should India join these blocks or should it maintain its independent policy? Can an India-U.S. alliance help stabilise Afghanistan or lead to further intensification of regional power competition? The rapidly changing geopolitical realities and increased spectre of violence is something that New Delhi cannot ignore.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#19: 13 APRIL 2017
Syria- the US flips a page
Maj. Gen. Neeraj Bali (Retd.)
Abstract
The strong response by the United States (US) to Syria’s use of chemical weapons has added uncertainty to an already volatile situation in that region. This also marked a stark departure from a policy of avoiding military intervention in Syria. Why did the US change course? Would it be a ‘game-changer’ for the Syrian situation and cast a long shadow on US-Russia relationship, hitherto described as ‘cosy’ since Mr Donald Trump became the US President?
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#18: 04 AUGUST 2016
An icon retires: Whither anti-AFSPA agitation?
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Irom Sharmila’s decision to end her 16 year old fast demanding scrapping of the controversial AFSPA does raise several uncomfortable questions regarding the organisation of civil rights movements in conflict ridden states.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#17: 04 JULY 2016
Whats in a name? Unscrambling the Dhaka terror strike
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Whether global or local jihad consumed the lives of the Bangladeshis and foreigners on 1 July 2016 is irrelevant. An effective counter-terrorism response is about the state’s demonstrated inclination to provide a honest assessment of the challenge and capacity to initiate steps to mitigate the threat. Bangladesh’s “Insurance Agent’s approach to terrorism” underlines that it is not even willing to address the threat.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#16: 13 JUNE 2016
Pakistan: Sharif Contestations
Anand Arni
Abstract
In Pakistan, the Sharifs- Prime Minister Nawaz and Army Chief Raheel have tried to outmanoeuvre each other. While many would expect the civilian government to be subdued almost instantly in a country where the military dictates terms, Nawaz’s own tactics have helped him to endure. And with barely six months to go before Raheel retires, there is no clear winner.
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MANTRAYA POLCY BRIEF#15: 1 JUNE 2016
Pakistan Army: Martial Race or National Army
V. Vidya Lakshmi
Abstract
The kind of influence Pakistan’s army enjoys in the country has few parallels. However, notwithstanding its primacy, it remains an ‘ethnically imbalanced’ army and not a ‘national army’. With a deeply entrenched concept of ‘martial race’, modernity is an unattainable goal for the Pakistan army.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#14: 26 MAY 2016
Profile: Abdul Rehman Rauf of Jaish-e-Mohammad
Partha Chakraborty
Abstract
Abdul Rehman Rauf is the second in command in the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM)’s power hierarchy and is arguably the most important person in charge of taking key decisions in the outfit. He has played key role in several terrorist attacks carried out on Indian soil and remains a key instrument of the Pakistan military’s anti-India subversive activities.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#13: 05 MARCH 2016
CPI-Maoist’s continuing potency
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Killing of 16 civilians in the worst massacre since 2013 and another three security force personnel in Chhattisgarh by the CPI-Maoist brings back attention on the potency of a declining extremism. The state’s continued achievements in neutralising its cadres does not appear to have dented its capacities to carry out selective and well-planned strikes.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#12: 04 January 2016
Bangladesh’s Ansarullah Bangla Team
Surya Valliappan Krishna
Abstract
Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) has emerged as a radical Islamist group with a limited operational objective of targeting secular bloggers in Bangladesh. However, behind its attacks on and killings of these bloggers, is its larger intent of establishing Islamic rule in the country and being part of the global jihad.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#11: 1 DECEMBER 2015
Afghanistan: Reversing losses?
V. Vidya Lakshmi
Abstract
Recurrent insurgent attacks and rising civilian fatalities in Afghanistan raise questions on the capacities of ANSF. The US decision to revise the withdrawal plan in the wake of the Kunduz attack has indicated the gaps in the strategic and tactical capacities of ANA in dealing with the insurgency. The domestic factors also remain a key area of concern. In this weakening security and political environment it is conducive for the Taliban to regain its lost ground.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#10: 24 SEPTEMBER 2015
Profile: Mirza Shadaab Beg of Indian Mujahideen
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Manoj Kumar Panigrahi
Abstract
Mirza Shadaab Beg alias Engineer was born in Raja ka Quila under Kotwali Police circle in Uttar Pradesh state’s Azamgarh district. Son of Mirza Ahatesham Beg, Shadaab pursued engineering prior to his joining the Indian Mujahideen. Believed to be based in Pakistan, Shadaab has been involved in a number of terror attacks carried out by the IM. Linked in the past to the TTP and the Al Qaeda, Shadaab is also a recruiter for the Islamic State.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#09: 15 AUGUST 2015
Maldives: Footprints of the Islamic State
Surya Valliappan Krishna
Abstract
Muslim majority Maldives is becoming a prime recruiting ground for the Islamic State. Over 200 Maldivians have joined the Islamic State. Political instability at home has allowed the Islamists to push their anti-democracy and pro-Islamist agenda. And the official response remains weak and insufficient. The growth of Islamic State’s influence in Maldives has serious repercussions for South Asia in general and India in particular.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#08: 07 AUGUST 2015
Profile: Mohsin Chaudhary of Indian Mujahideen
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Manoj Kumar Panigrahi
Abstract
Born on 6 November 1980, Mohsin Ismail Chaudhary alias Sayyed is one of the three sons of Ismail Ibrahim Choudhary residing in Manisha Complex in Mitha Nagar area of Kondhwa Khurd in Pune city. Although not much is known about his growing up years, Mohsin is believed to have been recruited into the Indian Mujahideen (IM) by the Bhatkal brothers – Riyaz and Iqbal, the founding members of the outfit. Mohsin is believed to be involved in several explosions carried out by the IM in India including the August 2007 twin explosions in Hyderabad and the July 2008 explosions in Ahmedabad.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#07: 30 JUNE 2015
Profile: Amir Reza Khan of Indian Mujahideen
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Manoj Kumar Panigrahi
Abstract
Born on 5 January 1978, Amir Reza Khan, alias Parvez (also known as Rizwan and Muttaki) was one of the four sons of Ishaque Ali Khan and Hasina residing in Beniapukur’s Mafidal Islam lane in Kolkata, in the state of West Bengal. Ishaque Ali Khan managed a small construction business and a large joint family. According to the National Investigative Agency (NIA) Amir’s permanent address is in Gaya district’s Mheyan, in the state of Bihar, which is the hometown of Ishaque Ali Khan. Amir’s life was significantly influenced by that of his elder brother Asif Reza Khan.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#06: 19 MAY 2015
IEDs: Preferred weapons without a counter
M A Athul
Abstract
IEDs have become the weapons of choice for militant groups and non state actors in asymmetric warfare of the 21st century. While these affordable, yet potent weapons have sustained the militant groups’ ability to stay in the fight, the state actors are yet to find an appropriate counter to these weapons.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#05: 07 MAY 2015
Reclaiming India’s Air Space
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
New Delhi needs to worry with Chinese satellites taking over the air space in South Asia using a predatory pricing mechanism. The official policy striving towards a Digital India must take note of the past performance of ISRO and the DoS and reassess the future of India’s Open Sky policy, which might have allowed itself to be exploited by foreign powers.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#04: 16 APRIL 2015
Bangladesh’s Shaheed Hamja Brigade
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Shaheed Hamja Brigade (SHB) is the newest addition to Bangladesh‘s terror formations. The authorities believe that following the arrest of 25 of its cadres, the outfit has been neutralised. Yet, a number of questions regarding SHB’s nexus with persons and networks need to remain to be answered.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#03: 09 APRIL 2015
Chinese Foreign Policy Signals for 2015
Bo Zhen
Abstract
The annual Chinese National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference ( CPPCC) held in March 2015 provides a glimpse to what the Chinese foreign policy might look in 2015. While there is a prospect for mutual cooperation with Russia and a competitive cooperation with the United States, there is prospects for acrimony with Japan and a process of engagement with India.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#02: 03 APRIL 2015
India’s Maritime Cooperative Security Architecture
Rahul K Bhonsle
Abstract
In the Indian Ocean region, India enjoys the advantage of a cultural connect and an ideal geographical location to build a cooperative network with states apprehensive of both traditional and non-traditional threats. A India-led Maritime Cooperative Security Architecture (MCSA) will be as much a security as a confidence building mechanism.
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MANTRAYA POLICY BRIEF#01: 20 MARCH 2015
Online Radicalisation and the Specter of Extremist Violence in India
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The Islamic State (IS) has demonstrated its capacity to efficiently use the internet for a variety of purposes including radicalisation. Instances of youths being bombarded online with radical ideologies is gaining ground not only in the West but also in India. While officials in India put a figure of 80-100 of its citizens affiliated with IS, the number of those getting influenced and indoctrinated through online content remains a blind spot and could be much higher. As the incidences of online radicalistaion is on the rise, it requires a sustained, systematic and innovative approach to meet the challenge. In developing collaborative and comprehensive counter radicalisation measures on a regional and global level, the government needs to look beyond its own known levels of competence to involve professionals and experts in the non-governmental sectors.
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