MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#51: 16 NOVEMBER 2020
Ending Militancy in Kashmir: Successes and Enduring Challenges
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Amid the Indian government’s continuing search for peace and stability in Kashmir, since the August 2019 decision to revoke Article 370 of the Indian constitution, security establishment in the union territory continue to face two primary challenges—home-grown militancy and militancy supported by Pakistan. Some successes have been achieved by reducing the number of active militants in the Kashmir valley and also the number of militant infiltrations from Pakistan. At the same time, local recruitment of militants continues. Peace will continue to elude the region in the coming months.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#50: 20 OCTOBER 2020
Jihadist Messaging: Arrest of al Qaeda Cadres in India
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Arrest of ten men affiliated to the al Qaeda from West Bengal and Kerala in September by the National Investigation Agency has yet again brought into focus the continuing Jihadist mobilization targeting the vulnerable Muslim community in India. Jihadist messaging is proving to be effective in enticing people from small Indian towns into the fold of global terror. However, to assess the actual threat posed by the phenomenon, it is imperative to analyse the underlying factors that aids Jihadist mobilization and the mode of messaging used by such groups.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#49: 05 OCTOBER 2020
Insurgency in Mozambique: The Islamic State’s New Frontier
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
A spate of attacks on villages and towns since 2017 by Islamist jihadists belonging to the al-Shabaab have killed more than 1,500 people and displaced over 300,000 in north Mozambique’s mineral gas-rich Cabo Delgado province. Violence has spiked this year in this aid-dependent country. The insurgents have occupied a strategic port in the town of Mocimboa da Praia since August 12. Access to the other port, Palma too is cut off after the insurgents occupied the connecting roads. Mozambique desperately needs assistance not just to train its forces, but also to adopt the right strategies to fight a menace which could spread and impact the neighbouring southern African countries.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#48: 24 SEPTEMBER 2020
India’s Cannabis Conundrum
Sameer Parekh
Abstract
Sale of cannabis is increasing globally, accompanied by legalization and decriminalization processes. North America and Europe are taking the lead. Asia is slowly catching up. When consumed moderately, Cannabis, like all other drugs, is recreationally and medically beneficial. In India, where cannabis has played a significant medicinal role for centuries, too is slowly waking upto the needs and benefits of decriminalizing and legalizing the drug. In the past years, several states, institutions and even agencies have initiated moves in this direction. However, the country needs to put a system in place to deal with the unintended pitfalls of making the drug available legally. Its potential medical benefits, commercial viability and awareness among people need to be factored into a comprehensive national policy, which needs to begin with a serious national debate over the issue.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#47: 14 JULY 2020
Nagaland: Mirage of Peace
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
August 2020 will mark five years since hopes were raised by the Government of India (GoI) of a solution to the Naga insurgency. However, in spite of the periodic optimistic statements by authorities, a solution to the oldest insurgency of India is nowhere in sight. In the past months, schism between the parties in negotiation has widened considerably, casting a pall of gloom over the future of negotiations for peace. Bringing an end to the state of stalemate would require flexibility in the official approach and innovative methods of conflict resolution.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#46: 20 JUNE 2020
‘War’ with the Pandemic: Bangladesh Grapples with Uncertainties
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Bangladeshi society, economy, and the health sector are being overwhelmed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The ‘lockdown’ strategy that was employed for two months has been abandoned after it failed to flatten the curve. Now the government hopes to achieve an 8.5 percent GDP growth by gradually opening up the economy. To contain the surging number of infections, Bangladesh needs to quickly mobilize considerable external assistance. In its absence, it could well face a major humanitarian crisis.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#45: 20 MAY 2020
Afghanistan’s War on Covid-19: Politics of the Pandemic
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
Afghanistan, in the coming days, is projected to have one of the worst Covid-19 infection rates in the world. As the government attempts to deal with the pandemic with its overstretched health services, the Taliban seem to be exploiting this opportunity to win the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Afghans. On one front, the group has continued to carry out incessant attacks on civilians, and on the other, it is amenable to let healthcare workers provide services in areas under its control. As the situation worsens, the Taliban are likely to use this space to improve their bargaining strategy and acceptability not only with the Afghans but also with the international community.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#44: 17 MARCH 2020
Afghanistan’s Fragile Political Transition: The Rocky Road to Peace
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
In a dramatic turn of events following the conduct of presidential elections in September 2019 and signing of the US-Taliban peace deal on February 29, Afghanistan witnessed two presidential inauguration ceremonies on 9 March. While President Ghani had been declared a winner, Dr. Abdullah too staked his claims: this high drama took place just a day before the scheduled intra-Afghan dialogue with the Taliban, the next step in the U.S.-Afghan peace deal. As the political wrangling and jockeying for power occurs, the Taliban may take advantage of the lack of unity among the political elite in Kabul endangering the fragile democratic experiment that the international community has invested in the past 19 years. President Trump, on the other hand, would like to project the peace deal with the Taliban and withdrawal of U.S. troops as a ‘success’ in ending America’s longest war for his reelection bid in November this year. Will this rush to exit and disunity in Kabul provide the space for an emboldened Taliban and their allies to consolidate their position and enhance their bargaining potential? Will the coming days witness Taliban move beyond its proclaimed objective of power-sharing and gradually attempting for complete domination? The fragile political transition and the timing of the peace deal pose serious questions for the long-term peace and stability of the conflict-ridden country.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#43: 02 MARCH 2020
Military and the Monks: Future of Civil-Military Relations in Myanmar
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
There are widely held perceptions that the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) has not only failed to act against the military perpetrators of crime against the Rohingya minorities, but has defended them openly. However, amid the din that seeks to disown the Nobel laureate and strip her off the awards bestowed by countless organisations, the NLD’s painstaking efforts to rein in the Buddhist nationalists on the one hand and to limit the power of the Tatmadaw (Myanmarese military) on the other, is being lost. In the run up to the parliamentary elections of November 2020, the international community has to choose between ASSK and the Military.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#42: 04 FEBRUARY 2020
Role of Youth in Peacebuilding & Prevention of Violent Extremism in India: The Policy Disconnect
Mridul Upadhyay
Abstract
In the context of peacebuilding in India, youth are either considered as victims or perpetrators of violence, but rarely as enablers who can play an important role in peacebuilding. This situation is prevalent despite youth having been granted a legally binding United Nations Security Council Resolution 2250 that highlights such role. Amidst such prevailing narratives and misconceptions, young people are subjected to policy negligence, hard-fisted security measures, and experiences of exclusion from multiple stakeholders. This needs to change if the youth need to play a constructive role in peace building in India. This article examines the policy for the youth in India and suggests ways of actively engaging the youth in peacebuilding and prevention of violent extremism.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#41: 27 JANUARY 2020
India: Left-wing Extremism in 2019: State of Play
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
In 2019, the Government of India and state governments affected by Left-wing Extremism (LWE) continued to take steps to deal with what used to be the country’s ‘biggest internal security challenge’. Today, in terms of its capacities to wreak continuous havoc on the state, the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), the forbearer of LWE, is a poor replica of its past. However, its self-preservation efforts as well as its attempts to expand in new frontiers appear to be more successful than the official efforts to eliminate it. This report analyses the important trends and highlights the state of play with regard to LWE in India in 2019.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#40: 25 SEPTEMBER 2019
In the Naxal heartland: A ‘turnaround’ in sight?
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Since 2018 (till August 2019), over 350 cadres of the Communist Party of India (CPI-Maoist) have been killed in various states of India. Rapid cadre depletion and continuous security force operations have dented the group’s ability to organize violence. This success is largely due to a systematic strategy adopted by the security planners since 2014 to penetrate deep into the core areas of the group and establish permanent camps. If persisted, even in the face of kinetic losses to the security forces, this strategy would be able to weaken the group considerably and may even compel the group to opt for negotiations with the government.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#39: 20 SEPTEMBER 2019
Peace Making in Afghanistan: Future Pathways
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The much-awaited peace deal with the Taliban by the U.S. collapsed before its final approval by President Trump. This was hardly surprising given the roadblocks that existed to such deal making. This calls for the rationale behind the now-derailed peace talks, which had overlooked the fact of centrality of Afghans in an externally mediated peace deal, to be reviewed. A series of necessary conditions need to be met before another attempt is made to make peace with the Taliban. Till such conditions are met, hasty attempts at negotiations will only lead to increase in violence, insecurity, and chaos in the conflict-ridden country.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#38: 10 JULY 2019
‘Negative Peace’: Conflict Economy of Naga Insurgency
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
How does an insurgency movement engaged in peace talks with the government generate its finances? Should the government attempt to curb its extortion activities that retains not only its structural violence instrumentalities, but also the options of indefinitely prolonging the negotiations? Should the peace negotiations strictly enforce a no-extortion clause to succeed? This article delves into the economics of the NSCN-IM’s commitment behind negotiations with the government.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#37: 26 JUNE 2019
Islamic State Returnees: India’s Counter-Radicalization vs Deradicalization Approach
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Punitive measures have been integral to the Indian approach towards people who have joined the Islamic State. The security establishment, however, adopts a much softer approach towards potential sympathizers and even towards those who have been prevented from leaving for Iraq and Syria. Counter-radicalization dominates government action. In view of the recent developments including the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka, should this policy be broadened in scope to embrace the benefits of de-radicalization? Should there be a scope for the de-radicalized individuals to be successfully reintegrated into the society? More importantly, can the de-radicalized individuals be a part of official counter-messaging strategy? This analysis makes a case for an innovative and comprehensive approach.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#36: 05 MAY 2019
Changing India and Iran Relations in the age of US Sanctions
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The recent Trump administration’s refusal to extend the waiver it had granted to eight countries including India and China from stopping the import of crude oil from Iran, has yet again put New Delhi’s Tehran policy in a serious quandary. India and Iran have shared long historical relations which are now being tested. Given India’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels, import of oil from Iran has remained the cornerstone of Indo-Iranian relations for past several decades. Moreover, both countries have a lot in common in their outlook towards a range of issues including Afghanistan. In the face of the U.S. sanctions, will New Delhi be able to maintain its long standing relations with Tehran? Or will it look for alternate partners in a delicate regional balancing act?
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#35: 19 MARCH 2019
Cattle Smuggling from India to Bangladesh: Scale, Nexus & Prevention Attempts
Pallavi Banerjee
Abstract
According to a 2016 estimate, 3000 cows are smuggled across the Indo-Bangladesh border each day. It is a trade that is estimated to be worth US$500 million. Since the BJP government came to power in New Delhi, it has taken steps to stop the trade and has claimed to have reduced it by 99 percent. However, a look at the cattle markets in Bangladesh indicates that innovative efforts by organized criminal grows keep the trade going. Is legalizing the trade a solution?
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#34: 26 FEBRUARY 2019
Pulwama Attack: The ‘game of chicken’ in India-Pakistan relations
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Kashmir yet again captured media attention with the suicide attack by a Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) militant on the security forces on 14 February that killed 40 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force. On 26 February, New Delhi conducted air strikes on the ‘biggest JeM training’ camp in Balakot. This ‘preemptive strike’ was part of the official Indian strategy of blaming Pakistan’s inaction on anti-India terror groups. While the attack indeed had roots in Pakistan, the fact remains that Kashmir’s security situation has worsened in the last five years, owing to an official policy of denial and miscalculations. Projections of optics of a strong state without addressing the basic ground level needs of the people could be driving the state to the brink.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#33: 30 JANUARY 2019
India’s Defence Diplomacy with Myanmar: State of Play
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
New Delhi’s strategic objectives in Myanmar remain important, yet ambigous. Firstly, the country is a lynchpin for India’s Act East policy. Secondly, it is a theatre where New Delhi is seeking to challenge the decades-old dominance of Beijing. And thirdly, Myanmar holds key to ending the remnants of the insurgencies in India’s northeast. To fulfil these objectives, New Delhi intends to boost the bilateral defence ties. While India’s Act East policy is a work in progress and the insurgents from North East India have not been dislodged from Myanmar’s territory, the ties between the defence forces of both countries have demonstrated signs of strengthening. For fulfilment of strategic objectives, however, there is a need to go beyond rhetoric and work on deliverables.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#32: 26 DECEMBER 2018
India’s ‘Act East’ Policy: Impact on Mizoram and Manipur
Safa Rahim
Abstract
India’s ‘Look East’ policy which was recalibrated as the ‘Act East’ policy has focused on reducing the economic and physical isolation of the northeastern region of India. Several connectivity projects are being implemented and are making progress, albeit at a tardy pace. The impact of these projects can, however, only be gauged by the benefit it provides to its stakeholders, especially the local population. In several cases, the government appears to have neglected the local interests. There are few evidences that the economic conditions of the local population have improved as a result of the policies undertaken in the past years. Can the Act East policy be construed as a success with such a record of implementation?
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#31: 30 NOVEMBER 2018
Paresh Baruah’s ULFA: Signs of Revival
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
ULFA-Independent, which seeks independence of India’s northeastern state of Assam, and operates from its camps located in the ungoverned spaces of Myanmar, is on a comeback trail. Headed by veteran rebel leader Paresh Baruah, ULFA has not only executed few terror attacks in Assam in 2017, its ability to recruit and extort too has grown. To prevent its revival the state needs to do more than conducting kinetic operations.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#30: 21 NOVEMBER 2018
Women Cadres of India’s Left-wing Extremist Movement
Rhea Maheshwari
Abstract
India’s Maoist extremism draws its women cadres from the impoverished tribal population. Although the state highlights the employment of coercion as a tactic for recruitment, Maoists use variety of instruments to fill in the ranks of fighters, support staff, and those who propagate the ideology of extremism. Only on rare occasions have educated women joined the organisation and moved to its upper echelons of leadership. And yet to label the CPI-Maoist a mere patriarchal movement would be incorrect, as women fighters have matched the strength and agility of their male counterparts to take part in number of ambushes and attacks. This article focuses on the reasons behind women joining the outfit and their essential role within it. The objective of the article is to enable policy makers develop a critical understanding of the phenomenon, rather than merely focusing on the narrative of coercion and sexual exploitation.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#29: 04 OCTOBER 2018
Myanmar versus the Rohingya: The China Factor
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
A number of investigative reports have found evidence of Myanmar’s military role in the ethnic cleaning of the Rohingya leading to huge international uproar and censure. In response, Myanmar’s civilian as well as military have closed ranks and sought support of China. Beijing not only has attempted to protect them from international ostracism, but to impose a superficial solution to the crisis. In return, it appears, Beijing has been assured of furthering its economic and strategic interests in Myanmar. Shrewd diplomacy by Myanmar of using China as a trump card has unveiled the specter of Myanmar getting away with the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya; and procrastinating the repatriation of the refugees.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#28: 05 AUGUST 2018
Imran Khan’s Pakistan & Prospect of ‘Peace’ in South Asia
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The selective euphoria with the poll results in Pakistan’s National Assembly elections notwithstanding, Imran Khan’s ‘new Pakistan’ suffers from inherent limitations. It may not augur a new or dramatic turnaround in policy towards India and Afghanistan. Unless the military establishment is willing to revisit its position, Pakistan’s policy towards India and Afghanistan, under a new Prime Minister, is unlikely to change. However, if modest goals are set in bilateral relations with India and Afghanistan demonstrating their willingness to give Mr. Khan a chance, his chances of delivering on his promises would be greater.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#27: 05 JULY 2018
Sri Lanka’s Cannabis Problem: Roots in India
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The volume of Ganja (cannabis) smuggling from India to Sri Lanka has risen significantly over the years. The demand for cannabis from Kerala in Sri Lanka has given rise to a robust supply chain that starts from states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka, passes through Tamil Nadu and Kerala, through the Palk Straits into the Sri Lankan waters and its landmass. The trade has grown in sophistication and is closing the divide between the licit and illicit economies. Both countries’ inability to control the illegal trade, due to logistical and capacities issues, has witnessed a trade diversification into other drugs like Hashish and Cocaine. If unchecked, a nexus between transnational drug smugglers and terrorists in the region cannot be ruled out.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#26: 12 JUNE 2018
Bastariya Battalion: New force against India’s Left-wing Extremists
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Bastariya Battalion, a new battalion of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) is being inducted into the Left-wing extremism- afflicted Bastar region of Chhattisgarh state. Comprising of tribal recruits, the battalion is expected to add to capacities of the CRPF and bridge the deficiencies that affect its performance. Critics, on the other hand, fear that the induction of a ‘tribal only’ force will lead to brutalization of the tribals in the region. The reality is different. The attempt is continuation of the government’s inability to address the shortcomings of its security-centric counter-LWE approach. Unless loopholes in training, command and control, and intelligence are addressed, countering left wing extremism would remain an arduous task.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#25: 15 MAY 2018
Narco Economy in Myanmar: From Opiates to ATS
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Rising demand has transformed Myanmar into the prime producer of synthetic drugs. It’s a US$ 4 billion economy. Production of and trade in narcotics in Myanmar registers continuous growth in spite of a decrease in area of production of poppy and growing success by the police personnel in seizing the contraband. A new drug control policy notwithstanding, controlling the spiraling trade will be difficult unless a cooperative mechanism is established among the regional countries.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#24: 27 APRIL 2018
Five Nations Railway Corridor Project: Increasing Connectivity & Chinese Dominance in Afghanistan
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Sayantan Haldar
Abstract
The Five Nations Railway Corridor (FNRC) is yet another connectivity project sought to be implemented in Afghanistan and has been embraced as an a potential game changer for the conflict ravaged country. While the economic windfalls that the project can bring about for the participating states is undeniable, its timely implementation and the ascending Chinese influence over Afghanistan are associated concerns. Can New Delhi provide an alternative by demonstrating its strategic intent is a question begging for an answer.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#23: 11 APRIL 2018
What tools can India’s counter-radicalization policy employ?
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Counter-radicalization measures adopted by countries have typically followed clichéd patterns, although studies reveal that religion plays only a minor role in attracting men to the fold of global jihad. As India seeks to frame a policy of counter-radicalization, its tools must evolve beyond the ordinary and the policy should employ techniques which will find appeal among the vulnerable lot.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#22: 20 FEBRUARY 2018
Afghanistan: Battle of narratives, power contestations, & cycles of violence
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The sudden surge in violence and gory blood bath in January 2018 brought about renewed international media attention to Afghanistan. The growing number of attacks indicates a deteriorating security situation, deepening political crisis and power contestations. In the ensuing battle of area domination between the Islamic State and the Taliban, more blood is being spilled in the streets of Kabul. Moreover, both the Taliban and the Islamic State also appear to be benefiting from the larger geopolitical rivalry of great powers. As the date of presidential elections draw near, power reconfigurations and realignments can lead to an increase the levels of violence. In the light of these developments, it is critical to shore up Afghan government capacities and step up efforts at institution building in key sectors to prevent the backsliding of Afghanistan into further instability and chaos.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#21: 19 FEBRUARY 2018
State of Play: Insurgencies in India’s Northeast
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Amid relative tranquility, little rebellions are continuing in India’s northeastern region. Headed by recalcitrant rebel leaders, some of whom have no inhibitions in aligning their ambitions with that of the anti-India policies of neighbouring countries, these movements have been responsible for the occasional acts of violence and a more persisting problem of disruption and instability. Directionless and protracted negotiations between the government and the pro-talk insurgencies have not helped. Although insurgency-related fatalities have dipped, for durable peace to return, New Delhi needs to do more.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#20: 17 JANUARY 2018
State of Play: Left-wing Extremism in India in 2017
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Another year went by. The problem of Left-wing Extremism (LWE) in India, however, continues to persist. In 2017, the left-wing extremists, belonging predominantly to the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) carried out more number of attacks killing and injuring more security forces than the previous year. They snatched more arms from the security forces and fewer cadres surrendered. Despite the fact that the operational weakness of the CPI-Maoist has been repeatedly acknowledged by the outfit’s top leadership and its influence is now confined to pockets in a handful of states, the LWE problem in India continues to rank high in the list of internal security challenges that the country faces.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#19: 14 NOVEMBER 2017
Changing Dynamics of India-China Relations post-Doklam Standoff
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The Doklam standoff appears to have unveiled a new era of India’s China policy. Does this standoff mark a turning point in their relationship or will it be a continuation of the status quo? Does it portend a trend of increased belligerence and distrust that could bring the two giants on a collision course? Or will they adopt a more conciliatory approach if such incidents were to reoccur? Even though the conflict might not have been fully resolved and the probability of recurrence in the near future remains high, a combination of determined posture and astute diplomacy can succeed in protecting India’s interests vis-a-vis China’s aggressive postures in South Asia and the neighbourhood.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#18: 18 OCTOBER 2017
TAPI Pipeline: A Confidence Building Measure in South Asia
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The narrow security dominated approach has not yielded results in the last sixteen years of the ‘war on terrorism’ in Afghanistan. And yet there is much emphasis on kinetic operations and troop surge in the new strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia announced by Donald Trump on 21 August 2017. Expanding regional economic cooperation and establishing trade and transit linkages remains critical for the long term stabilization of the conflict ridden country. Regional economic cooperation and connectivity projects have the potential to bind the regional countries in a mutually beneficial framework of cooperation by establishing joint ventures, encouraging investment, and addressing the current trade and transit problems which has led to sub-optimal utilization of the available natural resources.Major regional connectivity projects such as Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Pipeline can help minimize the damaging impact of zero-sum competition and change the narrative of pessimism to opportunity in Afghanistan in terms of revenue, jobs, economic opportunities and self-sufficiency.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#17: 28 SEPTEMBER 2017
How will the Rohingya Conflict End?
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
The Rohingya in Myanmar, with their poverty and limited economic opportunities, seek only to live with dignity, free from fear of attack. Given the Myanmar military is not inclined to stop its persecution and the civilian government is ill placed to intervene, the crisis can be brought to an end only if international actors step in.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#16: 20 SEPTEMBER 2017
Trump’s ‘new’ Afghanistan Strategy & Indo-U.S. Strategic Partnership
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
Donald Trump’s strategy for Afghanistan and South Asia announced on 21 August, was intended to highlight the novelty and surprise elements of a roadmap that purportedly sought little short of the decimation of terrorism. For all that, the ‘new’ strategy, its overheated semantics and studious ambiguity notwithstanding, in reality is but a continuation of the American trial and error method that has kept insurgent aspirations of a victory alive these 16 years since the US intervened in Afghanistan. After spending much blood and treasure, has the US learnt from its mistakes? Is the present strategy a break with the past? Or is it a mere continuation of a policy with no defined objectives and outcomes? India must consider carefully its desired terms of engagement for any serious partnership with the US in Afghanistan. Ahead of US Defense Secretary James Mattis’ visit to New Delhi on 25 September, New Delhi needs to use the opportunity to tell Washington of the shortcomings of the present Afghan policy.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#15: 04 JULY 2017
China’s New Game in India’s Northeast
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Could China be drastically altering its policy with regard to insurgency movements in India’s northeastern region? A series of developments point at that direction. To blunt India’s assertive postures under the BJP-led government, Beijing could be gradually unveiling a grand design to revive the battered insurgencies. Provision of safe houses, supply of weapons, and even playing a more prominent role in directing attacks on security forces could be emerging as Beijing’s instrumentalities to disturb peace in the fragile northeast and checkmate India’s Act East policy. India’s relations with Myanmar that can defeat this Chinese ploy, therefore, assumes greater importance. New Delhi must take notice.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#14: 08 JUNE 2017
China’s Counter-terrorism in Xinjiang: Inward Looking Template
Adarsh Vijay
Abstract
The Uyghur insurgency continues to be an unresolved internal security threat for China. China’s counterterrorist policy reflects an amalgamation of military coercion, socio-economic transformation, and a propaganda warfare. The communist state and its unparalleled reaction against the Uyghurs make its anti-terror calculus a complex one. This article seeks to analyse the nuances of the Chinese counterterrorist policy and debunks the popular myth that the Chinese have come to display Islamophobia in their approach to the Uyghurs.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#13: 24 APRIL 2017
The Fantastic as Strategy: India’s Game in Kashmir
Madhumita Das
Abstract
There has always been a gulf between Kashmiri aspirations, the compulsions of India, and to a lesser extent, Pakistan. The ongoing revisionism in India’s body politic, led from the highest echelons of State power, however, does not seek to bridge this gulf, but rather exacerbate it. Isolating and defeating Kashmiri, as dissident Muslims, while hardening its territorial claim is an essential element of the new nation-building project. It is line with the majoritarian agenda afoot in the Indian mainland itself. Given the nature of the Kashmiri Gordian knot, the strategic advantage is reaped by Pakistan.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#12: 30 MARCH 2017
Future trajectory of Left-wing extremism in India
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Declining ability among the left-wing extremists (LWE) to orchestrate attacks and the state’s purported capacity to find support among the traditional recruitment base of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) are the primary reasons for the official optimism regarding the LWE situation in the country. And yet, the extremists do manage to carry out intermittent major as well as small scale attacks. Sizeable territory in the country remains under the control of the extremists. A solution to the problem that began 13 years ago with the formation of the CPI-Maoist does not look imminent.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#11: 15 FEBRUARY 2017
Hindu migrants from Bangladesh: Assam’s souhaitable guests
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Assam’s demography could be changing again with a new trend of influx of Hindu migrants from Bangladesh. The Bharatiya Janata Party, in charge of the state government and New Delhi, insist that Assam is duty bound to host to these subjects of persecution. It is unclear, however, how these Hindu migrants, unlike their Muslim counterparts, would not be a source of outrage and social tension in states where they are settled.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#10: 08 JANUARY 2017
Will all that much change in a world with President Trump?
Paul B Rich
Abstract
It is important to start examining how much will change with Donald John Trump, the unusual American president who fails to conform to the usual standards expected of such an office. There is much to play for within American politics over the next few years and doom-laden prophets of doom who have seen Trump as the harbinger of some sort of American fascism are mistaken. Trump has to deliver on at last some of his electoral promises to the working-class voters who helped secure his election.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#09: 05 AUGUST 2016
Failure of institutionalised cooperation in South Asia
Nivedita Jayaram
Abstract
Regional integration in South Asia lags behind other regions in the world despite efforts at institutionalized cooperation through the SAARC. Economic cooperation and connectivity in South Asia can pave the way for shared problem solving and greater economic development for all states in the region. The SAARC efforts remain ineffective due to its narrow focus on the removal of tariffs on intraregional trade. Led by a motivated political leadership, SAARC could greatly benefit from identifying and resolving the unaddressed barriers to regional integration, rather than relying on progressive tariff reduction on intraregional trade in goods as the single means for facilitating regional integration.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#08: 17 DECEMBER 2015
Road to the Dragon: Overcoming Challenges to the Wakhan Corridor
Boh Ze Kai
Abstract
Product of an 1894 treaty to separate the Russian Empire from British India, the Wakhan Corridor is a thin panhandle in North Afghanistan. The Emirs of Badakhshan once leveraged on the region’s control over mountain passes on the Silk Road to China to build a wealthy domain extending as far as Kashgar. Today the border to China is closed, the tracks are desolate, and only sheep roam where rich caravans once plied. Yet, if challenges can be overcome through bilateral cooperation, this ancient trading route may provide old advantages and new opportunities for both China and Afghanistan.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#07: 30 NOVEMBER 2015
Maldives: Helping China counter American design
Jhinuk Chowdhury
Abstract
Strategically located Maldives plays an important role in alternative maritime routes that China is seeking to build through initiatives like One Road One Belt. Much of Beijing’s growing assertion in the Indian Ocean is projected towards the US centric club China perceives Washington is building along with India. However Maldives will need to align with multiple powers if it were to meet all its needs and hence China cannot expect any ‘exclusivity’ for its regional alliances.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#06: 20 NOVEMBER 2015
Islamic State: Patterns of Mobilisation in India
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Seven specific patterns can be inferred from the mobilisation carried out in support of the Islamic State in India. These patterns help in understanding whether and in what form the Islamic State may be able to reinforce itself within India in the coming months and identifying potential areas for government intervention to prevent such journeys from being undertaken.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#05: 10 NOVEMBER 2015
Dragon in the Himalayas: Expanding Chinese footprints in Nepal
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Chinese footprints in Nepal have consistently expanded in the past decade. Not only that the Chinese investments in the country have increased substantially overtaking India as the largest investor, Mandarin is being seen as the language of the future by the Nepalese youth. Whether New Delhi can deal with this development by overplaying its geographic advantages must remain a matter of serious debate.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#04: 29 JULY 2015
Gurdaspur terror attack: Reigniting the Khalistan dream?
Bibhu Prasad Routray & Surya Valliappan Krishna
Abstract
The terror attack in Gurdaspur on 27 July 2015 points at an expanded game plan by the terror outfits and their sponsors in Pakistan. A bloody Punjab fits well into the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)’s objective of an engorged war with India beyond the traditional theatre of Kashmir. For the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) opening up the Punjab conflict yet again is a much cherished dream. Given that the attack failed attempts to repeat the adventure might be on the anvil.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#03: 02 JULY 2015
Islamic State and the South Asian Caliphate
Surya Valliappan Krishna
Abstract
The argument that South Asia in general and India in particular would maintain its insularity from the Islamic State’s influence is delusional. The threat for India is real and could be far more lethal than familiar Islamist groups. With the IS already showing signs of presence in parts of South Asia, it could be only a matter of time before it announces its arrival in India in a grand fashion.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#02: 26 APRIL 2015
President Ghani’s visit to India: New Beginnings
Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
Abstract
The pessimism in New Delhi’s strategic circles emanating from Kabul’s tilt towards Pakistan and China notwithstanding, President Ghani’s visit can mark the beginning of a clear road map of India’s engagement strategy to protect its key national interests and help in the long term stabilisation of Afghanistan. For that to occur, New Delhi would need to revisit its policies in Afghanistan, moving away from asset creation to a level of engagement that builds up Afghanistan’s economic, political and social capital based on Afghan needs and priorities in the transformation decade.
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MANTRAYA ANALYSIS#01: 13 APRIL 2015
The Battle in Sukma
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Abstract
Far from a war-like scenario which is being predicted, the CPI-Maoist attack on the security forces in Sukma will not necessarily unveil a spectre in which the extremists would carry out waves of attacks. Attacks on the contrary would be selective and well planned. Given the depletion in the Maoist ranks over the past years, planning of each attack would be guided by the twin principles of avoiding losses and maximising miseries on the adversary.
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